Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025
Records are there to be broken - and one was, in a big way. Let’s have a look at key metrics for the Alberta power market in May.
[This article is not financial or investment advice, but provided for general information purposes only. All information is subject to change and should not be relied upon for any decision making. See Webpage Terms of Use.]
The Data
Here is the big picture for hourly prices in May - it’s getting more colorful compared to April, though the “colder” colors representing lower prices still dominate:
Heat Map of May 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices.
Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom.
Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st.
Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour
black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh);
grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh),
light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh),
dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh),
yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh),
orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh)
red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh)
maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh)
Compared to April, a notable change on the generation side was that Suncor’s new 800MW Cogen facility operated at less than half of its nameplate capacity for most of the month (see Dispatcho for details). By itself, this should have resulted in higher prices, but we also had higher solar power production and the beginning of the snow melt (“freshet”) in neighboring British Columbia.
Overall, the average monthly pool price came in at CAD 40.99/MWh, the 8th lowest since 2005, and about 16% higher than last May’s CAD 35.37/MWh average. In other words, lower than average, but overall not too “remarkable” - though the continued normalization compared to 2021-23 was certainly a welcome relief for electricity users:
May average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh)
Prices are not inflation-adjusted
As in prior months, the distribution of prices was more interesting than the average. Examining the average of the daily lowest-cost 8 hours, we see an average of CAD 12.05/MWh. That was the second-lowest level for the month since at least 2005, with only 2012 being slightly lower (and only if we ignore inflation):
Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for May, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh)
Prices are not inflation-adjusted.
If you follow our articles, you will already suspect that this “discrepancy” was driven by a steep increase in zero-dollar hours (in turn driven by the structural changes in the power market). And that’s indeed what happened. With 64 zero-dollar hours, more than triple the previous record set just last year, we reached a new high for the month of May:
Monthly zero-dollar hours for May, 2005-2025
As you may recall from our 2024 annual market statistics, we saw a record 376 zero-dollar hours last year. But as of the end of May 2024, the annual total stood at only 33 - at the same time this year, we are already at 268. Given the implications for generators and grid operators, expect the topic to become front-page news in the near future!
Implications
What does it mean for large industrial power consumers in Alberta? And how about the impacts of the Restructured Energy Market (REM)? The REM is expected to come into effect in 2026, most likely bringing locational marginal pricing (!), 5-minute settlement intervals, and a pathway toward a negative price floor. We will explore some of these aspects in coming blog articles.
And since we receive a lot of questions especially from Alberta’s largest industrial power users, the oil & gas industry, we will hold a training course dedicated to this topic on October the 2nd.
During the one-day in-person event at the Calgary Petroleum Club, we will decode industrial power bills, strategize with case studies, and enable participants to prepare for the 2026 market restructuring. And we will use “oil & gas industry language” to cut through the jargon. You can find more details and to book your spot here.
If you have questions or feedback, please contact us. We look forward to supporting you!
Join us on October 2nd!