Energy Insights
Equipping Deal Teams for success in the complex energy sector is our priority. Our articles deliver in-depth analysis on core areas: LNG, electricity, and Power-to-Heat. We also address general topics that impact deal delivery, helping you stay informed and effective.
We welcome your feedback and look forward to an open discussion.
These articles do not provide investment, business, or legal advice. Posts are for general information purposes only, and remain subject to change.
LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 2 - Gas-Fired Power
Unpacking the complex role of LNG in Asia's power sector! This article dives into how basic economics, heat rates, and the surging competitiveness of renewables (especially with battery storage) are reshaping power generation. We explore if LNG can expand its footprint, and what this means for market participants.
LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 1 - The Market
As the LNG sector experiences a near-daily surge in project announcements and construction, the specter of overbuilding looms. Is this intense growth merely hype, forecasting an inevitable crash, or is it the natural consequence of prior underinvestment?
To counter the prevalent misinformation, this three-part series seeks to foster a more informed dialogue. We will delve into Market Size in Part 1, scrutinize Gas-Fired Power Generation in Part 2, and dissect overall Market Dynamics in Part 3. Our preliminary conclusion: 'it depends”.
Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q2 2025
Exploring trends in Alberta’s Electricity Market, with an overview of key developments and statistics for Q2 2025.
Alberta Power Snapshot - June 2025
A month that was supposed to be “boring” for the Alberta Power Market was anything but - especially on June 17th, when the system came quite close to outages. Time for our monthly Alberta Power Snapshot!
Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025
Average Alberta electricity pool prices were quite “normal” in May 2025, but the market set a new (big) record for zero-dollar hours. This article provides an overview of key statistics and market trends.
Alberta Power Snapshot - April 2025
Alberta electricity pool prices continued their downward trend in April 2025 compared to the recent past, and monthly zero-dollar hours set another all-time record. This article provides an overview of key statistics and market trends.
LNG Spot Prices - The Billion-Dollar Question
In our last LNG Blog, we argued that most LNG demand discussions are rather pointless, as demand will (almost) always match supply. But with spot prices ensuring that this is the case, how should market participants manage price uncertainties? As spot trades gain market share, and more gas producers enter into spot netback deals, this is literally a billion-dollar question. Here is our take.
Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025
Alberta’s power markets tend to be highly volatile in Q1, with cold weather driving up demand, dark days reducing solar power generation, and frigid temperatures impacting asset reliability. The start of 2025 brought its own set of market records, which we explore and compare to the previous 20 years.
Why LNG Demand will (almost) always match Supply
One of the most-discussed topics at LNG conferences, and in research papers, blogs, and articles is the outlook for LNG demand. Yet most of the time, the discussions and conclusions are utterly pointless and meaningless. LNG Demand will (almost) always match supply - for simple economic reasons. But that’s not necessarily good news for many market participants.
Alberta Power Snapshot - February 2025
A brief review of Alberta electricity pool prices in February 2025, including another record for zero-dollar prices for the month of February since at least 2005.
The Deal Mapper: Scenario Analysis as a Critical yet Undervalued Tool for complex LNG agreements
Anyone who has ever negotiated a larger commercial agreement knows that price is often one of the simpler aspects to resolve, with other terms and conditions presenting far larger challenges. Scenario analysis is one of the most powerful tools to prepare for commercial negotiations, and controversies most often stem from misunderstandings and misapplications. Arder’s Deal Mapper workshops provide an effective tool to address client scenario planning requirements for complex LNG agreements.
Alberta Power Snapshot - January 2025
A brief review of Alberta electricity pool prices in January 2025, including the first-time ever zero-dollar prices in any January since at least 2005.
Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review
A review of the Alberta electricity market in 2024 with a focus on outliers, trends and patterns, and a comparison to the 2005-2024 time frame. Particular focus on the “outlier” (or rather structural trend) of sharply increasing zero-dollar hours.
Escaping the Echo Chamber - 2024 Edition
As we enter the holiday period, a look at information sources that we at Arder Energy found useful to broaden our perspectives on the wider energy landscape.
Alberta-Power: The Change is Structural, not Cyclical!
An analysis of Alberta electricity supply & demand scenarios illustrating the structural change driving a sharp increase in zero-dollar pool prices.
Alberta Power Snapshot - November 2024
A brief review of Alberta electricity pool prices in November 2024.
Q&A: Alberta Power - October Snapshot
Thank you for all the questions regarding our Alberta Power October Snapshot! This article provides a summary response.
Alberta Power Snapshot - October 2024
More records have been broken in the AB electricity market in October 2024. The biggest story were yet again zero-dollar hours.
A level playing field saves taxpayer money!
A levelized playing field for competing technologies significantly reduces the cost to taxpayers by driving customers toward the most economically efficient solution. In Canada, Thermal Energy Storage solutions are currently disadvantaged vis-a-vis other, costlier technologies - time to re-level the playing field!
Alberta-Power: Regime Change!
A review of the rapidly and radically changing electricity market regime in Alberta through key Q3 statistics and comparisons to the same quarter over the past two decades. Zero-dollar hours are on a roll!