Energy Insights

Equipping Deal Teams for success in the complex energy sector is our priority. Our articles deliver in-depth analysis on core areas: LNG, electricity, and Power-to-Heat. We also address general topics that impact deal delivery, helping you stay informed and effective.

We welcome your feedback and look forward to an open discussion.

These articles do not provide investment, business, or legal advice. Posts are for general information purposes only, and remain subject to change.

Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 2 - Gas-Fired Power

Unpacking the complex role of LNG in Asia's power sector! This article dives into how basic economics, heat rates, and the surging competitiveness of renewables (especially with battery storage) are reshaping power generation. We explore if LNG can expand its footprint, and what this means for market participants.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 1 - The Market

As the LNG sector experiences a near-daily surge in project announcements and construction, the specter of overbuilding looms. Is this intense growth merely hype, forecasting an inevitable crash, or is it the natural consequence of prior underinvestment?

To counter the prevalent misinformation, this three-part series seeks to foster a more informed dialogue. We will delve into Market Size in Part 1, scrutinize Gas-Fired Power Generation in Part 2, and dissect overall Market Dynamics in Part 3. Our preliminary conclusion: 'it depends”.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta Power Snapshot - June 2025

A month that was supposed to be “boring” for the Alberta Power Market was anything but - especially on June 17th, when the system came quite close to outages. Time for our monthly Alberta Power Snapshot!

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025

Average Alberta electricity pool prices were quite “normal” in May 2025, but the market set a new (big) record for zero-dollar hours. This article provides an overview of key statistics and market trends.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta Power Snapshot - April 2025

Alberta electricity pool prices continued their downward trend in April 2025 compared to the recent past, and monthly zero-dollar hours set another all-time record. This article provides an overview of key statistics and market trends.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

LNG Spot Prices - The Billion-Dollar Question

In our last LNG Blog, we argued that most LNG demand discussions are rather pointless, as demand will (almost) always match supply. But with spot prices ensuring that this is the case, how should market participants manage price uncertainties? As spot trades gain market share, and more gas producers enter into spot netback deals, this is literally a billion-dollar question. Here is our take.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025

Alberta’s power markets tend to be highly volatile in Q1, with cold weather driving up demand, dark days reducing solar power generation, and frigid temperatures impacting asset reliability. The start of 2025 brought its own set of market records, which we explore and compare to the previous 20 years.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Why LNG Demand will (almost) always match Supply

One of the most-discussed topics at LNG conferences, and in research papers, blogs, and articles is the outlook for LNG demand. Yet most of the time, the discussions and conclusions are utterly pointless and meaningless. LNG Demand will (almost) always match supply - for simple economic reasons. But that’s not necessarily good news for many market participants.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta Power Snapshot - February 2025

A brief review of Alberta electricity pool prices in February 2025, including another record for zero-dollar prices for the month of February since at least 2005.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

The Deal Mapper: Scenario Analysis as a Critical yet Undervalued Tool for complex LNG agreements

Anyone who has ever negotiated a larger commercial agreement knows that price is often one of the simpler aspects to resolve, with other terms and conditions presenting far larger challenges. Scenario analysis is one of the most powerful tools to prepare for commercial negotiations, and controversies most often stem from misunderstandings and misapplications. Arder’s Deal Mapper workshops provide an effective tool to address client scenario planning requirements for complex LNG agreements.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta Power Snapshot - January 2025

A brief review of Alberta electricity pool prices in January 2025, including the first-time ever zero-dollar prices in any January since at least 2005.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review

A review of the Alberta electricity market in 2024 with a focus on outliers, trends and patterns, and a comparison to the 2005-2024 time frame. Particular focus on the “outlier” (or rather structural trend) of sharply increasing zero-dollar hours.

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

A level playing field saves taxpayer money!

A levelized playing field for competing technologies significantly reduces the cost to taxpayers by driving customers toward the most economically efficient solution. In Canada, Thermal Energy Storage solutions are currently disadvantaged vis-a-vis other, costlier technologies - time to re-level the playing field!

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Jan Poetsch Jan Poetsch

Alberta-Power: Regime Change!

A review of the rapidly and radically changing electricity market regime in Alberta through key Q3 statistics and comparisons to the same quarter over the past two decades. Zero-dollar hours are on a roll!

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